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My best book of the year: Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction

On October 12, 2004 Yasser Arafat, the 75 year old leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization, became severely ill with vomiting and abdominal pain. Over the next three weeks his condition worsened. On October 29, he was flown to a hospital in France where he fell into a coma. On November 11, 2004 Yasser Arafat, who survived several Israely attempts on his life, died. What killed him was uncertain. But even before he died there was speculation that he had been poisoned.

 

In 2012 researchers at the Lausanne University announced that they had tested some if Arafat’s belongings and discovered unnaturally high level of polonium-210, the same radioactive element that was found in the body of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006.

 

In August 2012, Arafat’s widow gave the permission for his body to be exhumed and tested by two separate agencies, in Switzerland and France.

 

Now the question which you have to answer before you continue:

 

Will either the French or the Swiss inquiries find elevated levels of polonium in the remains of Yasser Arafat’s body?

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